Remember Nate Silver, the statistical genius? A year ago, in the last few weeks of the 2012 presidential campaign, Silver, then of the New York Times, was examining the polling data and predicting an easy win for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney.
In spite of a lot of huffing and puffing over Silver's methods and the reliability of "skewed" polls, Silver was proven correct.
This summer Silver announced he was leaving the Times and taking his talents to ESPN. His new site is expected to debut early next year.
In the meantime, Silver examined the shutdown and offered this analysis, The Six Big Takeaways From the Government Shutdown.
Here's a snippet:
1. The media is probably overstating the magnitude of the shutdown's political impact.
Remember Syria? The fiscal cliff? Benghazi? The IRS scandal? The collapse of immigration reform? All of these were hyped as game-changing political moments by the news media, just as so many stories were during the election last year. In each case, the public's interest quickly waned once the news cycle turned over to another story. Most political stories have a fairly short half-life and won't turn out to be as consequential as they seem at the time.